Vietnam U23 vs Philippines: From "Tearing the Net" to the Efficiency Problem

During the training session on the afternoon of September 16 in Nagoya, heavy rain poured down on Vietnam U23's training pitch. The ball rolled faster on the wet grass, and short passes became harder to control. The coaching staff still had the players perform continuous finishing drills. The order from Coach Dinh Hong Vinh was clear: they must "tear the net" of the Philippines in the match on September 18. But behind that order is a difficult problem: Vietnam U23 created many chances against Kuwait but scored only once. In football, such orders often stem from impatience, and sometimes we forget that the line never lies, but the person drawing it can. The statistics on chances created can be interpreted in a way that benefits the presenter.

At Asiad 2026, Group C, Vietnam U23 enter their second match against the Philippines. Currently, Uzbekistan U23 crushed the Philippines 5-1, while Vietnam U23 drew 1-1 with Kuwait. Both Vietnam and Kuwait have 1 point, but Uzbekistan leads with 3 points and a +4 goal difference. The Philippines are bottom with 0 points and a -4 goal difference. Vietnam U23's position is not too bad, but if they do not beat the Philippines, their chances of advancing will be threatened before the final match against Uzbekistan. The match against the Philippines takes place at Nagoya City Minato Stadium, where rain is forecast. This is important context because Vietnam U23's playing style could be affected by the slippery pitch and wet ball. Moreover, after a heavy defeat, the Philippines will be psychologically motivated to redeem themselves; they may play with a packed defense and wait for counter-attacking opportunities. Vietnam U23 must prepare for a match that is not easy, even though the opponent is considered weaker. History also shows that Vietnam U23 often have good results against the Philippines at youth level, but youth football always has surprises. At Asiad 2026, Vietnam U23 reached the semi-finals, and that is a model for this generation to follow. However, each tournament has a different context, and the pressure of achievement is always present. In terms of points, Vietnam U23 need at least 4 points after two matches to keep their hopes alive. If they beat the Philippines, they will have 4 points and can control their own fate in the match against Uzbekistan. If they lose or draw, the path becomes much more difficult. Therefore, this match is seen as an early final of Group C.

Analyzing Vietnam U23's problem, the first thing to look at is finishing efficiency. Against Kuwait, Coach Dinh Hong Vinh's team created many chances but succeeded only once. The coaching staff sat down, reviewed the video, and reassessed their ability to capitalize on opportunities. They realized that the problem was not in chance creation but in finishing. This is a fixable problem, but it could also be a sign of a deeper limitation: decision-making inside the box.

The data analysis does not have detailed metrics like xG or shot counts, but from what was observed, Vietnam U23 controlled the game against Kuwait. They created chances from various directions: long balls behind the defense, central combinations, and set pieces. However, the final shots were often inaccurate or saved by the Kuwaiti goalkeeper. This shows that the attacking players need to improve their positioning and decision-making speed. I have spent many years working with VAR systems and data analysis, and I have learned that: finishing efficiency is not just technique but also the ability to read the situation and stay calm under pressure. Young players tend to shoot too hard or aim too precisely, instead of choosing a safe and effective solution.

The match against the Philippines will have a different context. The Philippines just lost 1-5 to Uzbekistan, and they may choose a packed defense to avoid another heavy defeat. This poses a challenge for Vietnam U23: how to break down a low and dense defensive block. In modern football, when facing a team that actively defends, big teams often use the width of the pitch, crosses from the flanks, and set pieces. With a wet pitch due to rain, the ball travels faster, short passes and intricate combinations may struggle, while direct plays and crosses become more effective. This means Vietnam U23 may need to change their approach, shifting from a short-passing possession game to long balls and exploiting set pieces.

Another important factor is psychology. The "tear the net" order from the coaching staff can create great pressure on young players. In football, when a team is asked to attack strongly, players tend to rush, shoot from unfavorable positions, or ignore better combination options. This can backfire, especially when the opponent defends stubbornly. I have witnessed many matches where the favored team struggled because they could not break down a defensive wall, and ultimately lost due to a counter-attack. That is a lesson in balance.

To have a more detailed look, let's analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the Philippines. Despite losing 1-5 to Uzbekistan, the Philippines are not a weak team. They have some naturalized players and talented young players. In the match against Uzbekistan, they exposed many gaps on the flanks and poor aerial defense. These are areas Vietnam U23 can exploit. If Vietnam uses early crosses from the flanks, with the participation of full-backs, they can create waves in front of the Philippine goal. Additionally, set pieces such as corners and free kicks are also good opportunities, as the Philippines appear confused in marking.

However, the Philippines can also cause difficulties with fast counter-attacks. They have quick players on the flanks, and if Vietnam loses the ball in midfield, they could be punished. Therefore, Vietnam needs to maintain focus in defense, especially the two full-backs should not push too high at the same time. There needs to be a defensive midfielder shielding the backline, ready to cover when needed.

Regarding the weather, heavy rain can affect both teams, but it favors the team that plays long balls and has better fitness. Vietnam U23 are rated higher in fitness and speed, so if they exploit it, they can overwhelm the Philippines in the second half when the opponent tires. However, rain can also make the ball slippery, leading to handling errors and unnecessary goals conceded. Players need maximum concentration throughout the match.

Regarding the referee, Asiad usually uses experienced referees. I do not know who the main referee for this match is, but usually, referees at Asiad are very strict with reckless tackles and reactions. Vietnam U23 need to stay calm and avoid unnecessary cards. With VAR, decisions will be reviewed carefully, especially offside situations and fouls in the penalty area. Vietnam needs to be aware of this to avoid losing focus.

In terms of lineup, Coach Dinh Hong Vinh may keep the same framework that played against Kuwait, but could change a few positions in the attack to enhance finishing. Players like the main striker and wingers need to play more decisively. If Vietnam U23 score early, the game will become much easier. Conversely, if they are stuck in the first half, the coaching staff needs to make reasonable adjustments, possibly bringing on players who can create breakthroughs.

Vietnamese fans in Japan are expected to come to Nagoya City Minato Stadium to cheer for Coach Dinh Hong Vinh's team. The support of the fans is a great source of mental encouragement, but it can also create significant pressure. Young players need to know how to turn pressure into motivation. In football, fighting spirit and confidence are among the most important factors.

Contrary to popular opinion, I believe Vietnam U23's problem is not a lack of desire to win or a lack of chances, but a lack of patience and composure in the final third. Coach Dinh Hong Vinh publicly demanding to "tear the net" of the Philippines can be a double-edged sword. It conveys a message of determination, but also inadvertently puts pressure on young players, causing them to lose the necessary calm in front of goal.

Furthermore, focusing too much on attack can make Vietnam U23 careless in defense. The Philippines, despite a heavy defeat, can still create dangerous counter-attacks if Vietnam pushes too high and loses control. In football, goals conceded from counter-attacks often come from an imbalance between attack and defense. I recall the match between Vietnam and Kuwait, where Vietnam at times pushed high and exposed gaps behind the defense. If the Philippines exploit that, they could cause an upset.

More broadly, Vietnam U23's finishing problem reflects a common reality of Vietnamese youth football: the ability to develop sharp strikers is still limited. Young players are often well-trained in technique and tactics, but lack decision-making ability in decisive moments. This is a problem that needs time and a high-level competitive environment to improve. Meanwhile, teams like Uzbekistan and Japan have had systematic striker development for many years. That is why they regularly produce strikers who can score 20-30 goals a season at youth level. Vietnam is still struggling to find such a striker model.

Another perspective: is Vietnam U23 too dependent on a few individuals? In the Kuwait match, it seemed the attacking players tried too hard to score, instead of trusting their teammates. This can lead to elaborate individual actions and losing the ball. Football is a team sport, and success comes from coordination. If Vietnam U23 play with high team spirit, they will find it easier to break down the Philippine defense.

Vietnam U23 do not need to "tear the net" of the Philippines at all costs. They need to play with confidence, patience, and discipline. If they continue to create chances like in the Kuwait match, and improve their positioning and decision-making, goals will come. Asiad 2026 is a playground for young players to gain experience, not a place to bet everything on one match. Success in youth football is not measured by one win, but by the sustainable development of each individual.

In over 20 years of following football, I have learned that successful teams are those that control their emotions and adhere to the plan. Vietnam U23 have the potential to do that. They need to trust the process, not just the result. And as I often say, I do not watch the match; I read the rhythm of the match through each frame. Those frames show me that Vietnam U23 are on the right track, they just need a little more calmness and efficiency. And once again, the line never lies, but the person drawing it can – trust the data, but do not forget that people are the decisive factor.